Friars beware

The San Diego Padres just played a four-game series against the Cardinals and produced 14 total hits. That is the fewest they have recorded in any four-game stretch in franchise history. They rank 29th in the majors in batting average (.223), 29th in slugging (.370), and dead last in OPS (.667). They are 24-17 and in first place in the National League West.

The method: What allows a team that is hitting so poorly to be in first place is their bullpen and run prevention. The Padres pitching staff allows runs at a rate that keeps games close enough for late-inning execution to matter. The back of that bullpen is built for exactly this kind of season: hold the score, wait for one big swing, and then lock it down. It is a genuine organizational philosophy, not a fluke — the Padres have been constructed to win low-scoring games, and they keep winning them. The Cardinals series offered the counterexample: a JJ Wetherholt inside-the-park grand slam off a defensive miscommunication in right field doomed them. Those are the moments that expose a team running on thin offensive margins. One broken play and the formula falls apart.

The Dodgers will keep coming: Los Angeles is 24-18 and trailing by half a game. Shohei Ohtani is pitching tonight against the Giants, carrying a 0.97 ERA. The Dodgers have more offensive talent, more star power, and a deeper payroll. If the Padres’ formula is going to hold for a full season it will have to hold against exactly the kind of roster the Dodgers have assembled. Tonight, meanwhile, the Padres face Misiorowski in Milwaukee. Safe to say that the hits will not be plentiful for the Pads. But they just might win anyway.

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