Loose bodies
Tarik Skubal needs elbow surgery. The procedure is loose body removal, the least invasive type of arm surgery, but it's the third procedure on an increasingly fragile left arm. And the timing cuts right to the core of what Scott Boras promised his prize client: control.
Case history: Skubal's arm has been a recurring plot thread. During his sophomore year at Seattle University, he tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery. He came back, got drafted by Detroit in 2018, and made the majors in 2020. He pitched a full season in 2021, but then in August 2022 he had flexor tendon surgery. He missed the remainder of that season and returned midway through 2023. After that, he was pretty good. (If you think winning the Cy Young in 2024 and again in 2025 is pretty good). Now he has loose bodies in the elbow, requiring surgery to remove bone chips and cartilage floating in the joint. The least serious of the three procedures, yes, but it's still the third time his elbow is going under the knife.
The money: Skubal becomes a free agent after this season, which was supposed to set him up for the biggest pitcher payday in MLB history. How he got here is interesting. In 2024, Skubal rejected an offer from the Tigers that was reportedly for four years and under $100 million. According to Skubal, the Tigers made no new offer after he won his second straight Cy Young award last season. Skubal filed, and won, an arbitration claim for 2026, granting him a $32 million salary. Instead of walking into the most frenzied free agent market ever for a pitcher, Skubal now hobbles in with a recent surgical procedure and a documented history of arm trouble.
Detroit without him: Detroit is tied for first in the AL Central, but they’re 18-19. The last-place Twins are only 1.5 games out. Skubal's absence through July doesn't eliminate the Tigers from contention, but it costs them real wins. Maybe five, maybe eight. In a division packed this tight, that's the difference between holding pace and falling back. The Tigers have real pitching depth, bolstered by adding Framber Valdez this offseason, but it remains to be seen how long it will take Skubal to get back to speed, and how effective he will ultimately be when he returns.
The elbow hinge: It’s in Skubal’s best interest to show that his arm is fine before the season ends. The recent history of pitchers entering free agency with injury overhang is not great; Shane Bieber and Noah Syndergaard had to take prove-it deals when they became free agents with health questions. But if Skubal rushes back too quickly and isn’t himself or, in a nightmare scenario, reinjures his elbow, the dream of the first $400 million deal for a pitcher could be gone.
