
A non-robo ump
The system is simple: batters, pitchers, and catchers can each initiate a ball or strike challenge with a tap of the cap or helmet within two seconds of a call. Each team gets two challenges to start; a successful challenge is retained, and you lose the ability to challenge after two incorrect ones. The machine decides. The scoreboard shows the result. Tens of thousands of people in the stadium know immediately whether the umpire got it right. And now that we have four weeks of data on ABS challenges, let’s look at some trends.
What the numbers say: Catchers and pitchers (59%) have been more successful than batters (46%) at winning challenges. Challenges overall have been successful 53% of the time, but they’re correct just 40% of the time when the bases are loaded, which points toward players taking more chances with borderline challenges in high-leverage situations. The ABS challenge dashboard on Baseball Savant is updated in real time and shows fairly steady results this season in challenge win rates across batters, pitchers, and catchers. Among umpires, Andy Fletcher has had the most overturned calls, at 21 (out of 25 challenges). Of umps who have called at least 1500 pitches, David Rackley (5), Will Little (6), and Quinn Wolcott (7) stand out for losing minimal amounts of challenges.
Behind the plate: Austin Hedges, who has caught in the big leagues for ten years, offered the most grounded take on the new system, and how the umpires are reacting to it: “There's accountability to it, and it's going to help them get better.” He also confirmed that smart teams aren't challenging randomly — Cleveland is doing film work specifically to learn which situations are worth a challenge, and when to hold one back for the at-bat that actually matters. The players and teams who know the strike zone best have been getting the most out of this system.
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